## Probability and Likelihood

Say I toss a coin several times, and your job is to work out the probability that the coin
comes up "heads" on any given toss.

Let's assume that you don't have any prior expectations
about the probability of heads (i.e., you think the coin is just as likely to be weighted as fair).
I toss the coin 5 times and get the following outcomes:

H H T H T

What should I believe about the fairness, or otherwise, of the coin?

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